Open threats against Muslims in Bosnia and threats of a new military conflagration - Serbian representatives issue unequivocal warnings. Will the bloody history of the Balkans repeat itself? What should the West do?
The threat was quite clear: Milorad Dodik, the leader of the Bosnian Serbs and president of the Republika Srpska, announced in the presence of government representatives in Belgrade that he “does not see any sense in the Serbs remaining within Bosnia”. “We will move forward as independents”, Dodik said and reiterated that there was no genocide in Srebrenica.
In a new UN resolution, July 11 is scheduled to be declared a national day in memory of the victims of the genocide in Srebrenica. The authorities in Belgrade and in the Republika Srpska are fiercely opposed because they interpret this decision as a collective stigmatization of the Serbs.
Genocide denial is part of Dodik's repertoire
What is most disturbing about Dodik's speculations are his proposals for the Bosnian Muslims who live on the territory of Republika Srpska – they are around 150,000. He recently stated that Bosniaks, who make up over 50% of Bosnia and Herzegovina's population, should not occupy more than a quarter of the country's territory. Dodik warned that if the UN adopts the resolution on Srebrenica, the only option is for Republika Srpska to secede. “Our people are angry and will not accept to live together with Bosnian Muslims”, said Dodik.
Dodik's statement about a quarter of the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina is too similar to the rhetoric used before the ethnic cleansing during the Bosnian war. The systematic and well-planned atrocities aimed to exterminate the non-Serb population as quickly as possible. These crimes have been documented and proven, and in the case of Srebrenica - classified as genocide by the UN War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague.
Although public denial of the genocide is a crime punishable by prison in Bosnia, Dodik has made it a permanent part of his repertoire. In the middle of April, he organized a large-scale rally in Banja Luka, which was attended by the until recently prime minister of Serbia, Ana Burnabic. In his speech there, Dodik repeatedly denied the genocide in Srebrenica and ended his speech with: “Long live Russia!”.
Travel to Russia
Soon after, Dodik traveled to Russia with fellow party member Nenad Nešić, who is also Bosnia and Herzegovina's security minister. There, the two met with the secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev. Dodik and Nesic also posted a photo from the plane they were traveling on, where they were smiling and displaying the Serbian nationalist victory sign. Nešić recently commented on Serbian TV: “My country is Serbia. My country is Republika Srpska. That's it”.
It is remarkable that despite all these violations of the Dayton Peace Agreement of 1995, the guardian of this treaty, the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina Christian Schmidt, remains silent. Back in September 2023, Schmidt threatened Dodik with "serious consequences" if he continued to escalate tensions. But even as Dodik continues his secession efforts, Schmidt remains silent. What's more - Schmidt regularly claims that the authorities in Belgrade are useful for the peace process, which borders on science fiction.
Preparing for the worst possible scenario
The EU peacekeeping force - EUFOR, whose task is to ensure the implementation of the Dayton Agreement, should patrol more intensively in the areas where the Bosnian Muslims expelled by the war have returned. These victims of war – nearly 150,000 in number, have already been through hell once. The threat of a possible new military trauma seems very real. In the worst case, the West will have to take preventive action to save these people - for example through buffer zones, possible evacuation operations and no-fly zones.
All this may seem unreal now, but the survivors of the Serbian massacres of the spring of 1992 continue to live in fear. And it is completely real - every year Serbian Chetnik associations celebrate in Visegrad the crimes they once committed. Without anyone stopping them. The nationalist rock band Night Wolves, who are linked to Putin, are peacefully passing through Republika Srpska, whose president denies the genocide.
Potential for escalation
According to NATO Commander-in-Chief for Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, the situation is serious. On April 17, he told the US Congress: “The dangerous situation in the Western Balkans region has deepened. Ethnic tensions in Bosnia have the potential to escalate”. According to gen. Kavoli Republika Srpska is trying to “weaken the authority of the state” and its ties with the EU and NATO, while maintaining close ties with Russia. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently said he was “deeply concerned” from “continuing separatist policies” in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
After that, Ana Burnabych adopted the words of Gen. Cavoli as a “disturbing message” and threatened: “If they accept the resolution for Srebrenica in the UN General Assembly, it will be a precedent. They will open "Pandora's box". And then may God help them.
Now it is the turn of the West to do something to save one of the most successful peace projects in Europe. In September 2023, NATO clearly demonstrated in Kosovo how a heated conflict can be extinguished in days. The West must also take preventive action to save Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Alexander Rothert has been researching the problems of the former Yugoslavia since 1991 and has worked in various positions for the UN, NATO, OSCE, the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina and others.